Unit Outline

In today's rapidly changing world, the ability to make informed decisions about the future is more important than ever, and this unit offers students the essential knowledge and techniques to make informative forecasts and to succeed in decision-making activities in economics, business, government, and many other fields. Throughout the unit, students will learn various reliable forecasting techniques, including the decomposition of time series, exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA modelling and forecast combinations. These methods will be applied to real-world economic data, providing students with practical experience in analysing and interpreting economic trends. In addition to technical skills, the unit will also cover key theoretical concepts and principles that underlie forecasting. These include an understanding of successful forecasts, and the limitations and uncertainties of forecasting. This unit is particularly relevant for students in economics, finance, business, and related fields who are interested in pursuing careers in analysing data, forecasting, consulting, strategic planning, or policy making.

Intended Learning Outcomes

As per the Assessment and Results Policy 1.3, your results will reflect your achievement against specified learning outcomes.

On completion of this unit, you will be able to:


1.	Analyse key concepts in forecasting and assess their relevance to economics and business decision-making.
2.	Select suitable and relevant data and apply appropriate forecasting methods to forecast economic and business variables.
3.	Critically evaluate forecasting models in the context of their economic or business application and statistical properties.
4.	Apply Excel to perform forecasting tasks, interpret the output and effectively communicate the results in an economic and business context.

Requisites


REQUISITE TYPE	REQUISITES
Pre-requisite	Any statistics unit or BEA140

Alterations as a result of student feedback

How will I be Assessed?

For more detailed assessment information please see MyLO.

Assessment schedule


ASSESSMENT TASK #	ASSESSMENT TASK NAME	DATE DUE	WEIGHT	LINKS TO INTENDED LEARNING OUTCOMES
Assessment Task 1:	Project Part A: Introduction and Data	Week 5	20 %	LO1, LO2, LO3, LO4
Assessment Task 2:	Project Part B: Selecting Forecasting Methods	Week 9	20 %	LO2, LO3, LO4
Assessment Task 3:	Project Part C: Forecasting Results, Conclusion and Full Report	Week 12	20 %	LO3, LO4
Assessment Task 4:	Final Take-Home Exam	Exam Period	40 %	LO1, LO2, LO3, LO4

Assessment details

Assessment Task 1: Project Part A: Introduction and Data

Task Description:

Part A is the first assessment task. Students will decide what to forecast and why, and then collect information and conduct preliminary analysis. This work needs to be submitted in writing as the Introduction section and the Data section of the project report.
The Introduction section sets the forecasting task and determines who the users are and how they will benefit from the forecasts.
The Data section includes summary statistics and charts to visualise important patterns in the data. You need to use MS Excel to make preliminary analysis of the data.

Task Length:

750-1000 words, plus appendix

Due Date:

Week 5

Weight:

20 %

CRITERION #

CRITERION

MEASURES INTENDED

LEARNING OUTCOME(S)


1	Formulate economic and business problems that can be informed by forecasting.	LO1
2	Specify, collect and organise data appropriate for the forecasting problem.	LO2
3	Use appropriate graphical and descriptive statistics to analyse data prior to forecasting.	LO1
4	Justify specification and forecasting model used in a forecasting problem.	LO3
5	Describe the forecasting task, relevant data and potential forecasting methods in writing with statistical evidence and charts produced by statistical software.	LO4

Assessment Task 2: Project Part B: Selecting Forecasting Methods

Task Description:

In Part B of the forecasting project, you will choose at least two forecasting methods that are appropriate for your forecasting object and the time series features of your data, in addition to some benchmark forecasting methods. You will need to decide an out-of-sample which is reserved for your forecasting exercise and decide an estimation sample/test set that is used for estimation of required parameters. You will also need to explain how to estimate the required parameters in order to perform the out-of-sample forecasting, and provide the estimated values of the parameters. If your data presents seasonality, please conduct seasonal adjustment.
This work needs to be submitted in writing as the Methodology section of the project report.

Task Length:

750-1200 words, plus appendix

Due Date:

Week 9

Weight:

20 %

CRITERION #

CRITERION

MEASURES INTENDED

LEARNING OUTCOME(S)


1	Select and specify forecasting methods appropriate for specific forecasting problems as well as for the properties of the data.	LO2
2	Justify the forecasting methods used in the forecasting problem.	LO3
3	Communicate forecasting methods in writing.	LO4

Assessment Task 3: Project Part C: Forecasting Results, Conclusion and Full Report

Task Description:

The main task of Part C is to conduct the out-of-sample forecasting using the forecasting methods discussed in Part B. Based on your work, you will write two new sections - Forecasting Results and Conclusion. In addition, you will compile the sections that you have submitted for Part A and B together with these two new sections and provide a reference list and Appendix for the entire report.

Task Length:

Approximately 2500 words for Part C. The overall length of the report is to be less than 5000 words.

Due Date:

Week 12

Weight:

20 %

CRITERION #

CRITERION

MEASURES INTENDED

LEARNING OUTCOME(S)


1	Interpret forecasting results	LO4
2	Critically evaluate alternative forecast methods.	LO3
3	Effectively use forecasts to inform economic and business decisions.	LO3
4	Use econometric software to implement forecasting methods.	LO4
5	Effectively use forecasts to inform economic and business decisions and clearly communicate results.	LO4

Assessment Task 4: Final Take-Home Exam

Task Description:

The Take-home exam consists of multipart questions including applied forecasting problems as well as short answer theory questions. Students must attempt to answer all parts of each question.

Once commencing the exam, you will have 24 hours to submit your answers via MyLO. Ensure that you make the necessary arrangements so that you have access to a computer and stable internet to do the exam.

Further information about the exam will be provided on MyLO

Task Length:

24 hours

Due Date:

Exam Period

Weight:

40 %

CRITERION #

CRITERION

MEASURES INTENDED

LEARNING OUTCOME(S)


1	Formulate economic and business problems that can be informed by forecasting.	LO1
2	Use appropriate graphical and descriptive statistics to analyse data prior to forecasting.	LO1
3	Select, specify and justify methods appropriate for specific forecasting problems as well as for the properties of the data.	LO2
4	Use appropriate forecasting methods to produce forecasts.	LO2
5	Critically evaluate forecasting methods and results, .	LO3
6	Interpret output and make statistical inferences from econometric results to effectively inform economic and business decisions.	LO4

How your final result is determined

To pass this unit, you need to demonstrate your attainment of each of the Intended Learning Outcomes, achieve a final unit grade of 50% or greater, and pass any hurdle tasks.

Submission of assignments

Where practicable, assignments should be submitted to an assignment submission folder in MYLO. You must submit assignments by the due date or receive a penalty (unless an extension of time has been approved by the Unit Coordinator). Students submitting any assignment in hard copy, or because of a practicum finalisation, must attach a student cover sheet and signed declaration for the submission to be accepted for marking.

Academic integrity

Academic integrity is about acting responsibly, honestly, ethically, and collegially when using, producing, and communicating information with other students and staff members.

In written work, you must correctly reference the work of others to maintain academic integrity. To find out the referencing style for this unit, see the assessment information in the MyLO site, or contact your teaching staff. For more detail about Academic Integrity, see Important Guidelines & Support.

Requests for extensions

If you are unable to submit an assessment task by the due date, you should apply for an extension.

A request for an extension should first be discussed with your Unit Coordinator or teaching support team where possible. A request for an extension must be submitted by the assessment due date, except where you can provide evidence it was not possible to do so. Typically, an application for an extension will be supported by documentary evidence: however, where it is not possible for you to provide evidence please contact your Unit Coordinator.

The Unit Coordinator must notify you of the outcome of an extension request within 3 working days of receiving the request.

Late penalties

Assignments submitted after the deadline will receive a late penalty of 5% of the original available mark for each calendar day (or part day) that the assignment is late. Late submissions will not be accepted more than 10 calendar days after the due date, or after assignments have been returned to other students on a scheduled date, whichever occurs first. Further information on Late Penalties can be found on the Assessments and Results Procedure.

Review of results and appeals

You are entitled to ask for a review of the marking and grading of your assessment task if there is an irregularity in the marking standards or an error in the process for determining the outcome of an assessment. Details on how to request a review of a mark for an assignment are outlined in the Review and Appeal of Academic Decisions Procedure.

Required Resources

Required reading materials

You will need the following text:

Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, 2021, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 3 rd Edition, O TEXTS. It is available online for free.

The prescribed software is MS Excel, R or Eviews.

It can be installed to a personal laptop or a desktop.